Jolani’s Al-Qaeda Legacy Highlights Complex Extremist Threats Persist

In a landscape perpetually torn between alliances and enmities, Abu Al-Jolani’s recent proclamation of victory signals the resurfacing of strategic manipulation, with the United States playing a role many regard as a double-edged sword. This move appears to resurrect dormant terror networks under the guise of strategic containment, writes Gajanan Khergamker

The implications of this development are profound, with Russia, Israel, and Iran positioned as pivotal players in this evolving theatre.

In his speech, Jolani celebrated what he termed the triumph of Islam, framing his takeover as a divine victory. Laden with ideological zeal, his rhetoric aimed to inspire loyalty and reinforce leadership among Syria’s fractured factions. However, it also highlighted the precarious regional balance of power, raising questions about the real beneficiaries of his ascendancy.

Jolani has positioned his win as a divine victory

Jolani’s assertion is more than a rallying cry; it is a calculated manoeuvre to consolidate his position amidst waning international focus on Syria. With ISIS significantly weakened, Jolani’s rise fills a vacuum, albeit with a fragmented and volatile ideological base.

Reports of US support for Jolani’s faction—whether direct or indirect—have raised concerns. Ostensibly aimed at countering Bashar al-Assad and his allies, this strategy mirrors Washington’s historical pattern of empowering groups that later evolve into uncontrollable threats. Jolani’s rise exemplifies the unintended consequences of such interventions, risking a resurgence of terrorism in an already volatile region.

For Russia, which backs Assad’s regime to maintain its strategic foothold in Syria, Jolani’s takeover represents a direct challenge. Moscow views him as a destabilising force capable of undermining the fragile order it has worked to restore, compelling a recalibration of its military and diplomatic strategies.

For Israel, Jolani’s emergence raises immediate security concerns. While officially refraining from interfering in Syria’s internal affairs, Israel remains vigilant about groups threatening its northern borders. Jolani’s Islamist rhetoric and potential to attract extremist elements make him a force requiring pre-emptive counteraction.

Jolani’s rise also threatens Iran, a steadfast ally of Assad and supporter of Shia militias in Syria. His Sunni extremist ideology starkly opposes Iran’s regional ambitions, likely prompting Tehran to strengthen its proxies and further intensify the region’s proxy war dynamics.

Abu Al-Jolani’s speech and the circumstances surrounding his rise underscore the cyclical nature of chaos in the Middle East, where external interventions exacerbate internal divisions. For the US, Russia, Israel, and Iran, his takeover represents a call to action from vastly differing vantage points. Jolani’s actions and alliances will shape the region’s trajectory, with potential reverberations far beyond its borders.

A file picture of a tweet put out by the US Embassy in Syria in 2017

The international community, particularly external powers engaged in the region, must carefully evaluate their strategies. Missteps could perpetuate a cycle of terror, destabilising Syria and the broader geopolitical landscape.

Jolani’s ascent is inseparably tied to his association with Al-Qaeda, a relationship that continues to influence his ideology and strategy. A former operative within Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), he worked closely with Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, employing the organisation’s ruthless methods.

In 2011, as the Syrian Civil War erupted, Jolani established the Al-Nusra Front, an Al-Qaeda affiliate that became a cornerstone of jihadist activity in the region. His leadership gained notoriety for calculated brutality and strategic expansions, underpinned by Al-Qaeda’s operational legitimacy.

In 2016, Jolani rebranded Al-Nusra as Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), ostensibly to distance the group from Al-Qaeda. This move was widely seen as a pragmatic attempt to secure broader support and international acceptance, though much of Al-Qaeda’s ideology remained embedded in HTS.

The enduring influence of Jolani’s Al-Qaeda roots underscores the complexities of combating terrorism. His ability to adapt within shifting geopolitical contexts highlights the persistent challenge of addressing extremist threats intertwining ideology with pragmatism, creating enduring and multifaceted risks.